Wednesday March 20, 2019

Spring has Sprung!

What a Week!

Spring has really sprung nad we saw strong sales across the board that outpaced the increase in listings in most segments and price ranges.  Even the Peninsula has caught up in Detached homes and Condos.

Detached: Overall we are down to a 3.6 month supply vs. 4.2 months a week ago despite more listings.  The 1 week trend indicates we could be heading to 2.5 month supply soon.  Detached under $1M are already at 2.6 month supply and dropping (501 listings and 193 sold in the last 30 days). Despite being in a strong Seller's Market, we have not seen significant price increases.  Detached under $1.5M  has supply shrinking, $1.5M - $2.5M  has supply continuing to increase and is now at 15 months supply.  $2.5M - $4M is at a 20 month supply based on 6 months selling average and $4M+ has had 2 sales in 6 months with 21 listins (5year supply).

Condos: The Crisis continues and the trend is for an even hotter market.  the whole South Island is down to 2.7 months supply vs. 3.2 last week; the one week trend shows a less than 2.5 months supply is coming.  Listing volume is about the same as last week but sales are up.  Condo prices are seeing price increases as well with Victoria and Vic West cracking $600 per s/f on average and avering 104% of assessed value.  By price, anything under $800k is in strong demand; even $800k-$1M is now a balanced market at 6 months supply.  Over $1M is now at a 9 month supply which is similar to what we had in June last year.

Townhouses and Duplexes: Sales have eased a little but still only 4.1 months supply; the one week trend shows a further softening to 4.5 months supply.

See you next week for a new update.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 13, 2019

Condo Crisis !

That's my theme for the week.  Listings are up but sales are outpacing the inventory increases.  The core is at 2.9 months supply (336 listed, 117 sold in last 30 days) but if we look at condos under $500,000 we are at a 2.1 month supply; a strong Seller's Market.  $500k - $800k condos are at a 4.2 month supply and $800 - $1M at 7.5 months.  Westshore and Sooke have recovered from the last few weeks of low sales and their supply is down to 3.3 months now as well.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Detached Homes: The Oak Bay frency for homes priced between $1.5M and $2.5M has eased and is approaching a Balanced Market of 5 months supply.  The core (Oak Bay, Victoria, Esquimalt, Saanich, and View Royal) is at a 3.8 months supply and is holding steady.  Homes priced under $1M are in highest demand in the core with a 3.3 month supply.  Core homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are at a 4.4 month supply.  Langford, Colwood, and Highlands detached home sales have eased a little and are approaching a balanced market at 4.9 months supply.  The Peninsula sales are steady and in a Balanced Market with 5.4 months supply (125 listings and 23 sold in last 30 days). A noticeable change is what is happening over $1.5M; $1.5M-$2.5M has a 12 month supply, $2.5M - $4M at 24 months, $4M+ has seen 2 sales in 6 months on the South Island and is at a 5 year supply with 21 listings. 

Townhomes and 1/2 Duplexes: The demand for these homes is mostly strong and the core is at a 2.5 month supply, Westshore at 4.7 months, and trending dowards a Buyer's Market is the Peninsula with a 7.1 month supply.

Summary: The demand for housing on the South Island continues to be strong and inventory is in short supply.  Year over Year (Feb.) Victoria has seen a 2.8% increase in the average home price and Vancouver Island as a whole, a 3.5% increase.  This is despite a slow down in sales volume of 21.7% and 27.9% respectively.