May 2019 Review

The overall housing market on the South Island is seeing very strong demand and competition with 2.9 months of inventory.  A total of 727 sales were reported which is 30% higher than May 2018.  These sales figures do not include the Malahat or the Gulf Islands.
Detached homes: Continued strong demand is pushing inventory down to a 3.2 month supply overall; sales volume for May was 363 units which is the highest 1 month volume in over a year.  Oak Bay and the Peninsula are in a balanced market with 5.1 months and 4.5 months respectively.  Sales volume is similar to May 2018.  Victoria and Saanich sales were the highest in over a year and supply is down to 2.7 months.  Esquimalt and View Royal, although smaller volume, are at a 2.0 month supply creating a very competitive environment for buyers.  Westshore and Sooke had strong sales and are at a 3.0 months supply.  By price, homes under $1M are in extremely short supply with 2.2 months of inventory (632 listings and 287 sales in May).  $1M - $1.5M are balanced at a 5 month supply, $1.5M-$2.5M are at 7.3 months, $2.5M-$3.2M is still seeing decent turn over with a 10 month supply.  Over $3.2M, homes are selling at a pace of 0.8 homes per month with a 3+ year supply.  This is in sharp contrast to a year ago when all homes over $1.5M were at a 3.2 month supply.  A lack of Vancouver and international buyers has shifted our luxury home market.
Condos: Tremendous sales volume for May with 239 units, is the highest volume month in over a year.  Inventory is down to 2.8 months supply with 678 listings.  Victoria and the Core as a whole are at a 2.5 month supply with a high sales volume of 191 units.  Peninsula inventory is at 3.5 months supply which has been a fairly steady number for most of the past year.  Westshore inventory  is at a nearly balanced market with 4.3 months supply and 25 units sold.  Westshore volume has been steady this year but is down 30% compared to May 2018.  By price, condos under $500k are at a 2.1 month supply so half the inventory is selling every month; condos between $500k and $1M are averaging a 4 month supply which still a fast paced but almost balanced market.  Condos over $1M are at 14 months supply and averaging 5 units a month which is down 50% over last year’s average.
Half Duplex and Townhomes: A continued lack of supply and strong demand is keeping this market very competitive.  Overall, there is a 2.4 month supply of homes.  The Core area only has a 1.9 month supply with 125 listings and 65 sales in May.  The Peninsula is almost balanced at 4.1 months supply; Westshore and Sooke are also highly competitive at 2.6 months supply.

Wednesday May 15, 2019

Townhouse Buyers fight in the streets!  No, not really but that is what market figures are indicating this week.  
Half Duplex and Townhome sales are up and inventory is down with a 2.9 month supply compared to 3.7 months last week.  Victoria and Vic West had the strongest gains and supply is down to 1.4 months with 37 listings and 26 sales in last 30 days (70% of inventory is selling every month!).  The core is at 2.3 months vs. 2.8 months and the 1 week trend is indicating the demand remains extremely strong and supply may drop further.
Detached homes remained steady at 3.3 months supply with Victoria and Vic West showing a slight slow down and is up to 4.1 months supply vs. 3.4 a week ago. The Core is steady at 3.2 months overall.  Inventory under $1M is at 2.3 months supply so demand remains very strong, $1M - $1.5M is well balanced at 5 months supply.  Over $1.5M is at 13 months supply with 272 listings and only 21 sales in the last 30 days.  By unit volume, inventory over $1.5M is currently 1/3 of our overall detached inventory.
Condos saw a slight slow down with 3.4 months supply vs. 3.1 months last week; the 1 week trend indicates further softening of the market.  Victoria and Vic West demand remained steady with no change in months of supply, Saanich, View Royal, and Westshore lost demand and increased supply.  By price, 0-$425k condos are still extremely strong with 2.2 months supply, $500k-$800k is a well balanced market with 5.1 months supply and $800k+ is at 8.3 months supply bringing this luxury segment into a light Buyer’s market.
Overall, the market for all housing remained at 3.3 months supply with 2,086 listings and 638 sales in the last 30 days.  The 1 week trend looks strong so I expect the supply to remain low.

Wednesday May 8, 2019

Another week of strong numbers to report.  Overall inventory is up 6.5% from a week ago (2,041 vs. 1,915) but demand continues to keep pace with 626 pending in the last 30 days keeping us steady at 3.3 months supply.  Days on market for sold listings is at 22 days overall and current listings are averaging 30 days. The strong market is happening in detached homes under $1.5M and condos under $650k.

Detached: Supply remains steady at 3.3 months but supply ratio under $1M is continuing to shrink and is down to 2.3 months supply; compare this to 3.3 months 2 months ago.  Even $1M-$1.5M supply is at 2.7 months now.  Inventory over $1.5M is steady at about 13 months supply.  By area, demand remains consistent and there are no significant changes to any one area.  Sale price vs. assessment also remains steady at 101-102% in the Core area and at 105% on the Westshore.

Condo: Supply is steady at 3.1 months with condos under $425k at 2.1 months supply vs. 2.5 months in early March.  The flood of new construction listings in Victoria continues to keep supply higher in town but increased sales volume has brought the ratio down a little again.  There were 101 sales in the last 30 days for Vic and Vic West alone, that is 50% of the total sales volume of the South Island for the last 30 days.  Sales of luxury condos ($800k+) also saw an increase and the supply is down to 6.9 months which is a healthy balanced market.

Townhomes and half duplex: Supply increased a little and is up to 3.7 months (318 listings and 87 sales).  Sales are down a little but the Core area is still at a very strong 2.8 months supply.  Pricing remains steady 103-104% of assessment on average.

Wednesday May 1, 2019

April is done! Another strong month overall with 606 sales compared to 550 in March with 1915 listings vs. 1670 last month giving us a 3.2 month supply vs. 3.0 months. The number of active listings is up vs. last month but so are the sales; demand is still keeping up with the listings increases. The average sold listing spent 20 days on market and the average current listing has been 33 days on market. Smart pricing seems to be critical in this market as we are seeing overpriced listings being left out and properly priced listings selling quickly, often ending in multiple offer scenarios.

Detached: Supply is steady at 3.3 months and unchanged from March so it's still a fast paced market with homes under $1M dropping to only 2.3 months supply vs. 2.5 months in March. Even up to $2.5M the market gained strength. The market has lost a little more momentum over $2.5M. Victoria with Vic West was particularly strong last month currently at 2.7 months supply. Oak Bay is maintaining a balanced market at 5.2 months supply. Selling prices saw a slight increase of 1% vs. assessment on average compared to a month ago. Average days on market for sold homes was 21 days vs. 23 days in March.

Condos: Supply increased a little from 2.7 months in March to 3.0 months in April with 198 sales and 598 active listings. Both Victoria/Vic West and Westshore saw a flood of new construction units being listed on MLS this month. Have new construction sales slumped and are developers looking for better marketing through MLS? One quarter of Victoria and Vic West’s current MLS inventory is built 2019+ now. Victoria saw the most dramatic change with inventory increasing from 2.3 months supply to 3.1 months as sales slowed along with the increase in inventory. Westshore saw a similar slow down with 4.1 months of supply now vs. 3.5 months in March. By price, listings between $300k and $425k saw the largest increase in sales and only moderate listing increases, putting even more pressure on this segment and leaving us at 1.9 months supply (half the inventory sells every month!). Condos over $800k are seeing a slow down and our inventory is up to 9+ months supply. Average days on market for sold condos remains at 21 days.

Townhomes and 1/2 Duplex: Overall there was a slight bump in supply from 3.0 to 3.1 months with Sooke and the Peninsula showing the biggest slow down. Victoria on the other hand saw more demand and is now at only 1.7 months supply vs. 2.2 months in March. Selling prices have remained steady for townhomes and duplexes when compared to assessments. Average days on market for sold townhomes and duplexes was 17 days vs. 23 days last month.

If you are interested in how your home and neighbourhood are performing in this market, please let me know. Home market evaluations are free.

Wednesday April 24, 2019

The spring market certainly isn’t disappointing, with sales volume still matching this time last year.  We are seeing just a little softening overall with supply creeping up to 3.1 months vs. 2.9 months last week and the 1 week trend is indicating a further increase to 3.5 months but let’s see what the month end brings.  Average days on market is 19 days for the overall housing market, townhomes at 16 days, Condos at 18 days, and detached at 21 days.
Detached: Sales volume dropped a little and inventory is up slightly so we are at 3.4 months supply and the 1 week trend is indicating further slowing, closer to 4 months supply but let’s see what next week brings.  The core remains at 3.3 months supply and the only area with noticeable change was the Westshore, supply increased to 4.2 months.  By price, 0-$1M remained steady at 2.5 months supply so most of the slow down happened over $1M.  
Condo: The core area supply bumped up to 3.1 months vs. 2.5 last week but this change was created in Esquimalt and View Royal as Victoria and Saanich supply stayed steady.  Overall, the South Island condo market remains hot at 3.0 months supply vs. 2.8 months last week; the 1 week trend indicates a further slight softening so lets see what the month end numbers show next week.  By price, 0-$650k remains strong at 2.4 months supply although under $425k saw a loss in supply and $425k-$650k saw a gain.  The overall condo supply gain is seen mostly in the $650k+ range, now averaging 6.6 months supply.
Townhouses and 1/2 Duplex: Victoria and Vic West are moving at a blistering pace and are now down to 1.6 months supply with 36 listings and 22 sales in the last 30 days.  All other areas remained steady compared to the last few weeks and the 1 week trend shows a slight softening and we may reach a 3 month supply overall.
Remember,  5-7 months supply is considered a balanced market so most of our market segments continue to be well below that.

Wednesday April 17, 2019

Overall, we are down to a 2.9 month supply with 631 sales in last 30 days and 1846 listings.  We are averaging 20 days on market. An increase in luxury sales both in detached homes and condos have brought supply to more balanced levels again.

Detached: Phew !  Detached homes have NOT stopped selling :)  Last week certainly was the biggest 1 week blip I have seen so far but we seem to be back on track for a hot market.  Overall supply is down to 3.1 months and we are trending to a 3 month supply.
By area, the core is down to 3.3 months supply, Peninsula down to 3.0 months, Westshore down to 3.2 months, and Sooke 2.7 months which is the lowest in over a year for each of them.  Oak Bay saw more sales and inventory is down to 4.4 months supply with homes under $1.5M down to a measly 2.6 months supply.  
By price, under $1M we remain at 2.4 months supply with 574 listings and 243 sales, but under $700k we are at a 2 month supply so half the homes listed sell every month!  $1M - $1.5M had stronger sales as well and inventory is down to 3.7 months supply, over $1.5M sales also increased a little and we are at 11.5 month supply which is healthy for the luxury market and homes over $2.5M selling at an average of 71 days on market.

Condos: Sales continue to be strong and we are back to the same volume as this time last year with 201 units sold and are still at a 2.8 month supply; the 1 week trend is looking even stronger down to 2.6 months.
By area, West Shore continues to soften and we are up to a 4.6 month supply (sales are steady but listings are up).  The core is at 2.5 months supply vs. 2.6 last week with the highest gains in Saanich which is at 1.9 months supply now.
By price, under $650k we are at 2.4 months supply (lots of competing offers), over $650k we saw a few more sales and are at 5.5 months.  Even $1M+ condos are still at 6.4 months supply which is a healthy balanced market.  Victoria and Vic West condos are averaging $578 per square foot, Saanich is averaging $418 per foot, Peninsula at $472 per foot, and Westshore without Sooke is at $466 per foot.  This is within a few % of last year’s spring market in each area.

Townhouses and 1/2 Duplex: Strong demand here as well and we are down to a 2.6 month supply overall with 106 sales in the last 30 days which is the highest sales volume since 2017.  The one week trend is much weaker so we’ll see how next week’s numbers compare.
By area, the core is down to 2.1 month supply, Westshore is down to 3.0 months

Attached in the sheets this week is a break down of Oak Bay detached homes by price range, the sheet is small because I only have a few weeks of statistics.

Wishing Everyone some family time this weekend!  Happy Easter long weekend!

Wednesday April 10, 2019

The biggest blip on my radar was the 1 week trend for the overall market: it says we are moving to 4 months supply overall.  Having averaged roughly 3 months supply before, this was a bit of a shock.  I thought maybe it was because of month end and lots of deals were posted at the end of March and the spring listings have ballooned, but I found the change was isolated to detached homes.  The condo and townhouse markets continue to show low supply, 2.8 and 2.7 months respectively.  So what happened to detached?  The 1 week trend is for 5 months supply… a balanced market??? Not so fast I think but next Wednesday will be more telling for sure.  Looking at detached by price, supply of homes priced under $1M remains unchanged and very low at 2.4 months supply.  Inventory is up by 10% but so are sales so demand remains strong.  The big change is happening over $1M, a significant increase in listings (13%) but sales have remained steady; sales are still reasonably strong but our increasing inventory is  impacting the supply/demand ratio.  Again, 1 week does not tell a market so let's watch what happens this week.

Detached: The intro above covers the sub $1M market fairly well.  Homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are still moving well with a 4.4 month supply vs. 4.2 at end of March.  Over $1.5M we are seeing a steady rise in inventory without a change in sales volume.  We are averaging 16 months supply for $1.5M + . By area, Victoria and Vic West have dropped in supply down to 3.5 months from 4.3 months a week ago; listings are steady but sales have increased.  Oak Bay saw more listings and steady sales and the supply is up to 6 months which is a healthy balanced market.  Although, homes under $1.5M in Oak Bay are in high demand with 2.9 months supply.  Prices have not changed measurably for any price range.  By area, prices have increased a little in Victoria and Vic West reflecting the recent stronger demand.  Westshore with Sooke are seeing the highest price increases over last year.

Condos: Inventory is up but so are sales this week, the market is relatively unchanged at 2.8 months supply which is tough for buyers and we are seeing competing offers again.  Inventory climbed a little in the Westshore market and we are up to 4.3 months supply vs. 3.5 last week so certainly not as hectic as downtown Victoria, Saanich, and Peninsula areas which are averaging 2.6 months supply.  By price, condos under $650k are still in hot demand with barely 2.3 months supply.  Over $650k the market is fairly balanced at 6 months supply in the different price segments.

Townhouse and 1/2 Duplex: Demand remains strong for townhomes and half duplexes.  Supply dropped to 2.7 months supply which is the lowest it has been since last spring.  Listings are up 25% since January but sales volume has more than doubled in that time.  The core areas (Victoria, Saanich, Esquimalt and View Royal) are in highest demand with a 2.2 month supply.

Wednesday April 3, 2019

This week we will have a look at the month of March in review.  What a month!  March finished exceptionally strong and for the South Island we are down to 3 months of supply (1,670 listings and 550 pending/sold) with an average 21 days on market.  These numbers are a little different from what VREB posts because they do not include outlying areas like Malahat and Gulf Islands.

Detached: all areas saw strong sales and a shrinking supply along with short days on market.  The Core averaged just 14 days on market.  March sales beat March 2018 sales 270 vs. 241.  The two weakest regions of the year, Sooke and Peninsula, saw very strong numbers in March and are now at a 3.0 and 3.2 month supply respectively.  Sold prices vs. Assessed value show that Oak Bay is weakest at an average of 88% and Saanich West and Westshore (incl. Sooke) are strongest at 108% and 107%.  Looking at price points, detached under $1M only has a 2.4 month supply and $1M-$1.5M is at 4.2 months.  $1.5M-$2.5M has 14 months supply and over $2.5M we are in a strong Buyer’s Market at an over 2 year supply.  The median detached home price for March was $785,000 which is a little under the peak median price which happened in May and October last year, $825,000 and $829,000 respectively.

Condos: We are down to a 2.7 month supply overall and sales volume was higher than March 2018 with 194 sales compared to 170.  Most areas saw strong sales and decreased supply except Sooke.  Days on Market averaged 19.  The supply in Victoria and Vic West is down to 2.3 months with 94 sales and 220 listings, these levels are similar to last year's fast paced market.  By price, under $650k we are at a 2.2 month supply, $650k-$1M at 5 months supply (barely balanced market) and even luxury condos over $1M saw strong sales and we are down to a 6 month supply which is a healthy balanced market.  The median condo price in March was $430,000; this is the highest median price ever for Greater Victoria.

Townhouse and 1/2 Duplex: 3 months supply is what’s left over after a very strong March and these homes had an average of 18 days on market.  All areas saw strong sales and a reduction in supply.  Victoria and Vic West are down to a 2.2 month supply and the core remains strong at 2.5 month supply.  Median price for Townhomes was $547,400 which equals the average median price for 2018.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment. Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-7 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 27, 2019

Here are the latest market trends. If your neighbourhood isn't mentioned, let me know, I'm happy to give you a summary for your area.
 
Detached: Overall sales and inventory have remained steady, keeping us at a 3.6 months supply and in a Seller's market. By area, Oak Bay slowed down the most and supply increased from 4.8 months last week to 6.8 months this week; I expect these numbers to revert somewhat in 2 weeks after the effects of spring break are behind us. Westshore saw higher sales and only a few more listings so the supply reduced from 3.8 months to 3.5 months. By price, the market is remaining strong and supply low for anything under $1.5M with only 2.9 months supply and averaging 23 days on market; the slow down continues for anything over $1.5M with a supply of 22 months now for homes up to $4M and as before, the market for homes over $4M is unique but sales have slowed significantly. Listings were averaging 73 days on market a year ago and the current listings are now on market an average of 135 days. 2 sales in the last 6 months and a total of 10 sales in the last 12 months.
 
Condo: The 1 week trend is showing a slow down overall for condos but these numbers are being biased by condos over $650k, where sales slowed. Under $650k we are still at a 2.4 month supply, which is a tough market to shop in and a great market to sell in. Again I think the spring break vacations are temporarily impacting luxury sales. There were no significant changes to any one geographic area.
 
Townhouses and Duplex: Townhouses bucked the trend this week; more sales and steady listing count led to a reduction in supply down to 3.4 months from 4.1 (259 listings and 76 sales in 30 days); we are definitely in a Seller’s market now. The one week trend is showing an even stronger market so we’ll see what next Wednesday has to offer for numbers.
 
By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment. Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-7 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 20, 2019

Spring has Sprung!

What a Week!

Spring has really sprung and we saw strong sales across the board that outpaced the increase in listings in most segments and price ranges.  Even the Peninsula has caught up in Detached homes and Condos.

Detached: Overall we are down to a 3.6 month supply vs. 4.2 months a week ago despite more listings.  The 1 week trend indicates we could be heading to 2.5 month supply soon.  Detached under $1M are already at 2.6 month supply and dropping (501 listings and 193 sold in the last 30 days). Despite being in a strong Seller's Market, we have not seen significant price increases.  Detached under $1.5M  has supply shrinking, $1.5M - $2.5M  has supply continuing to increase and is now at 15 months supply.  $2.5M - $4M is at a 20 month supply based on 6 months selling average and $4M+ has had 2 sales in 6 months with 21 listings (5 year supply).

Condos: The Crisis continues and the trend is for an even hotter market.  the whole South Island is down to 2.7 months supply vs. 3.2 last week; the one week trend shows a less than 2.5 months supply is coming.  Listing volume is about the same as last week but sales are up.  Condo prices are seeing price increases as well with Victoria and Vic West cracking $600 per s/f on average and avering 104% of assessed value.  By price, anything under $800k is in strong demand; even $800k-$1M is now a balanced market at 6 months supply.  Over $1M is now at a 9 month supply which is similar to what we had in June last year.

Townhouses and Duplexes: Sales have eased a little but still only 4.1 months supply; the one week trend shows a further softening to 4.5 months supply.

See you next week for a new update.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 13, 2019

Condo Crisis !

That's my theme for the week.  Listings are up but sales are outpacing the inventory increases.  The core is at 2.9 months supply (336 listed, 117 sold in last 30 days) but if we look at condos under $500,000 we are at a 2.1 month supply; a strong Seller's Market.  $500k - $800k condos are at a 4.2 month supply and $800 - $1M at 7.5 months.  Westshore and Sooke have recovered from the last few weeks of low sales and their supply is down to 3.3 months now as well.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Detached Homes: The Oak Bay frency for homes priced between $1.5M and $2.5M has eased and is approaching a Balanced Market of 5 months supply.  The core (Oak Bay, Victoria, Esquimalt, Saanich, and View Royal) is at a 3.8 months supply and is holding steady.  Homes priced under $1M are in highest demand in the core with a 3.3 month supply.  Core homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are at a 4.4 month supply.  Langford, Colwood, and Highlands detached home sales have eased a little and are approaching a balanced market at 4.9 months supply.  The Peninsula sales are steady and in a Balanced Market with 5.4 months supply (125 listings and 23 sold in last 30 days). A noticeable change is what is happening over $1.5M; $1.5M-$2.5M has a 12 month supply, $2.5M - $4M at 24 months, $4M+ has seen 2 sales in 6 months on the South Island and is at a 5 year supply with 21 listings. 

Townhomes and 1/2 Duplexes: The demand for these homes is mostly strong and the core is at a 2.5 month supply, Westshore at 4.7 months, and trending dowards a Buyer's Market is the Peninsula with a 7.1 month supply.

Summary: The demand for housing on the South Island continues to be strong and inventory is in short supply.  Year over Year (Feb.) Victoria has seen a 2.8% increase in the average home price and Vancouver Island as a whole, a 3.5% increase.  This is despite a slow down in sales volume of 21.7% and 27.9% respectively.