February 2021 Review

No relief in sight.  Tight housing market continues in February with relentless demand and low inventory.  Demand has grown in all housing types and sales increased 36% compared to January with only a 3% increase in inventory.  Prices were up 7% overall compared to January averaging 121% of assessed value.  Median house price has increased from $710,000 to $746,000.  Housing supply has again diminished, leaving us with only 1.2 months of inventory vs. 1.5 months in January and December.  Not sure we can get more blood from this beautiful rock we live on.
Single Family Homes: We are down to a 0.9 month supply of single family homes with 314 sales and 296 listings; with an average of 9 days on market, most sales are ending in multiple offers and many bids are won with cash offers.  Prices have increased 5% compared to January and 9% vs. December and averaging 128% of the assessed value.  Sales volume increased 29% compared to January and inventory is up only 6%.  The most extreme supply and demand ratio was in the City of Victoria with 0.6 months of supply from 25 listings and 41 sales.  The Core ended with 0.8 months of inventory.  By price, homes priced under $1.5M have 0.8 month supply; $1.5M - $4M are at 1.8 months and only above $4M are we in a balanced market  with 5.2 months of inventory.
Condo: Demand for condos has increased as well and with 409 listings and 275 sales we are down to 1.5 months of inventory vs. 1.9 months in January and 2.1 months in December.  Sales volume is up 30% vs. January and there was no increase in inventory.  Sales prices have increased by 6% and condos are selling for 114% of assessed value on average.  Westshore seemed hardest hit with demand leaving us with 0.6 months of inventory from 35 listings and 58 sales.  By price we are in a Seller’s market in all price ranges but particularly low in supply under $500k with only 0.9 months of inventory.  Westshore has only 18 listings under $500k and only 0.4 months of inventory with 50 sales in this price range.  Sales volume in the under $500k price range is up 29% vs. January but with 10% less inventory.  10 condos priced over $1M sold in the Core pushing the price per square foot to $689 in the downtown area.
Townhomes and Duplexes: these homes end with 1.0 month of inventory vs. 1.6 in January and prices pushed up 6% with an average selling price 127% of assessed value.  The Core had the lowest increase in prices averaging 117% and Westshore the highest with 130% of assessed value.  All price ranges had strong sales, even $1M+ ended with only 1.9 months of supply.  Sales volume is up 54% over January with no increase in listings.

January 2021 Review (& December)

Overall: Housing demand vs. supply has never been greater than in December and January, both months ended with a 1.5 month supply; even the 2018 frenzy had 2 - 2.5 months of supply.  Inventory recovered slightly in January compared to December (815 vs 758) but sales volume was up as well (530 vs 511).  December and January prices were pushed up 3% vs. the 3 months prior to that with an average selling price of 114% of assessed value; the mean home price on the south island was $710,000.  Price per square foot averaged $480.  The last 7 days of the month are trending to a 5 week supply which shows that demand is increasing compared to December and much of January.  Average days on market for sold dwellings was 18.
Detached Homes: Inventory and sales volume have dropped compared to December and prior months but the demand is higher, we are left with only 1.1 months of inventory with 279 active listings and 243 sales.  We had twice the inventory a year ago with only 165 sales and 2.5 times the inventory in 2019 with only 105 sales.  The one week trend ending January shows a 4 week supply, and for the first time, the mean selling price of a detached home was $1M in January (ok actually $999,900 but $1M with pinky finger to mouth sounds better).  All areas had similar demand, even Oak Bay ended with a 1.3 month supply. Prices have been significantly pushed up and averaged 123% of assessed value and $446 per square foot.  Sold homes averaged only 14 days on market.  By price, our inventory for homes under $1.5M is at 0.9 months of supply (175 listings and 200 sales).  We are not seeing a balanced market until we reach $3.2M-$4M where we have 4.8 months of supply; homes priced $4M+ are only at 8.2 months of supply.  In Oak Bay, every home listed in price range of $1M-$1.5M sold in January, we have 0 active listings and 8 sales.  Unlike Vancouver, which saw a significant price drop in luxury homes after 2016, we continue to see a steady rise in prices.  There is concern in Vancouver of mortgage defaults as 5 year fixed terms are rolling over, I don’t foresee that on the South Island.
Condos: Sales volume is up 15% in January vs. December (212 vs 182) and inventory is up only slightly with 406 vs 375, leaving us with only 1.9 months of supply vs. 2.1 months in December.  This demand is similar to 2018 numbers, and despite the relentless construction, all price ranges up to $1M are in a strong seller’s market (below 4 months of supply), above $1M we are in a slight buyer’s market with 7 months of supply.  Prices have not been pushed up significantly yet, the selling price averaged 108% of assessed value in January and December, and was 107% in the 4 months prior to that.  The one week trend ending January shows a 7 weeks supply indicating that demand is steady.  The mean price of a condo was $440,000 which is the highest I have seen.
Townhomes and Duplexes: Sales volume is up 11% over December but inventory is up 30% which left us with a 1.6 month supply in January vs. 1.3 months in December but demand is rising again with the one week trend of the last 7 days giving us only 5 weeks of inventory.   Prices have been pushed up as well averaging 117% of assessed value vs. 114% in December; the mean townhome price was $625,000.  Average days on market for sold units was 14.  All price ranges are in a strong seller’s market, even townhomes and 1/2 duplexes priced over $1M are at only 3.3 months of inventory.

November 2020 Review

Overall housing demand on the South Island remained at 1.7 months supply but with 20% less residential sales and 20% less inventory.  November sales volume was approx. double that of November 2019 and that of November 2018.  Average sales prices remained at 111% of the assessed value.

Detached Homes: detached home demand dropped only slightly from 1.4 months to 1.5 months of supply, with a 20% drop in sales and 16% drop in listings.  Sales prices averaged 117% of assessed value which is up from 114% last month.  Sales volume in Saanich East and in Sooke did not change, all other areas were down.  The 1 week trend ending November indicates that the market is not slowing down just yet.  By price, under $2.5M remains very strong overall with less interest over $2.5M.  Oak Bay is at only 1.4 months of supply up to $3.2M but the demand drops quickly beyond $3.2M.  The Core was strong up to $3.2M.  Westshore remains strong up to $1.5M.  Peninsula was very strong up to $4M and even homes priced over $4M are in a balanced market with 6 months of supply.

Condos: sales volume dropped 9% but with inventory down by 18%, our supply dropped to only 2.1 months of inventory vs. 2.3 in October.  Sales volume was 2.5 times higher than November 2018 and almost double from last November.  Sales price averaged 107% of assessment vs. 106% in October.  One week trend ending November does not show a slow down yet.  Most areas had sales volume drop by the average of 9% except Westshore sales, which dropped by 20%.  By price, condo demand on the South Island increased on units priced up to $650k compared to October and dropped significantly above $650k.  The Core was very strong up to $650k, Westshore up to $500k, and Peninsula up to $500k.

Townhomes and Duplexes:  Demand remains unchanged with only a 1.3 month supply but sales volume and inventory both dropped by 23%.  Sales prices averaged 111% of the assessed value compared to 115% in October.  Victoria and Vic West had the biggest drop in demand with only 10 sales vs. 33 in October leaving us with a 4.4 month supply.  Most other areas saw sales volume drop by the average 23%.  By price, demand remains very high on townhomes priced under $1M and drops to a balance market of 5 months supply beyond $1M.

April 2020 Review

Hopefully you are all healthy and safe.  April numbers reflect the impact that COVID-19 has had on every part of our lives.  Overall, residential sales were down 60% on the south island with 245 units vs. 606 in April 2019 and down 53% vs. March 2020.  Listings at month end were up 3% vs. March shifting our supply and demand ratio from a Seller’s market into Buyer’s market.  Activity seems to be increasing these past 7-10 days and certain market segments remain in high demand; it feels like the market is going to swing back to being more balanced this month.

Single Family Homes: Sales decreased by 45% vs. March and was down 57% compared to April 2019.  Inventory remains quite low also at 725 listings and with a final sales figure of 137 we are in a balanced market with 5.3 months of supply.  Saanich East and West as well as the Westshore remained in a Seller’s market at roughly 4.5 months of supply.  Victoria and Oak Bay ended at 8.3 months and 16.2 months respectively; Oak Bay had 5 sales for the month.  The Peninsula ended with 6.5 months of supply.  By price, the majority of homes sales occurred in the $500k - $1M range where there is still a shortage of homes and we remain in a Seller’s market at 3.6 months of supply.  Homes priced between $1M - $1,5M had some activity and ended in only a slight Buyer’s market at 6.4 months of supply.  Above $1,5M we saw very little activity this month.  The trend in the last 7 days indicates more activity is coming and the market is recovering.  Price trend for the month shows a slight increase, homes sold for an average of 108% of their assessment vs. 106% in March and 104% in April 2019.

Condos: Sales decreased by 59% vs. March and were down 64% vs. April 2019.  Inventory remained consistent with March and with April 2019 and with only 72 sales the month, we ended with an 8.2 month supply; a strong Buyer’s market.  Activity in the last 7 days indicates that this trend may continue for May.  By area, the Core ended with 8.1 months of supply, Peninsula 13 months, and Westshore with 6.0 months of supply.  By price, condos priced under $380k had the most activity and sales volume slowed notably with each price segment beyond the $380k mark.  Price trend for the month was slightly down, condos sold for 103% of their assessment on average vs. 105% in March and 107% last April.

Townhomes and Half Duplex: Sales decreased by 57% vs. March and by 58% vs. April 2019.  Inventory is steady compared to March and down 20% vs. April last year.  Demand slowed a little and with 39 sales ended with a 6.0 month supply.  Westshore had a very strong month with 22 sales, leaving us with only 2.6 months supply, all other areas slowed to 8+ months of supply.  The trend in the last 7 days indicates that demand is growing again and May should be stronger.  Price trend showed a slight increase to 107% of the assessed value vs. 106% in March and 104% last April.

February 2020 Review

The Victoria Condo industry is NOT falling off a cliff!!! 

Yes, some condo buildings are being impacted significantly by the new insurance rates but the well maintained buildings with few claims are still safe to buy in.

Now that we have addressed the elephant in the room let’s have a look at our February numbers.

Overall, we had an exceptionally strong February with supply and demand ratios mirroring spring 2018; with 1399 listings and 482 sales the South Island finished with a 2.9 month supply of inventory. The 1 week trend shows that the momentum will continue and may increase further still. Single family homes are at a 3.0 month supply with 682 listings and 224 sales which exceeds 2019 figures and matches those of February 2018. Condos are at a 3.3 month supply with 555 listings and 168 sales which is on par with February 2019 and slightly behind 2018. The condo ratio is a little inflated because of the high volume of new construction so the number of available condos to buy and move into is significantly less. Townhomes and Duplexes are at a 2.4 month supply with 216 listings and 90 sales which exceeded February 2019 by 50% and roughly matched 2018.

Single Family Homes: Unlike the market of 2018 where homes in most price categories saw strong sales, we are now in a diverging market where an overall supply and demand ratio does not reflect the housing shortage most buyers are faced with. The inventory of homes priced under $1.5M is very low and buyers are competing against the few homes coming to market; the market under $1.5M is at 2.1 months of supply which means half the inventory is selling every month. Under $1M, we are at only 1.7 months supply on the south island. $1.5M to $2.5M homes are at 7.0 months supply (barely balanced) and homes priced over 2.5M are at 29 months of supply. Oak Bay overall is in a buyer’s market with 7.5 months supply although under $1.5M we are at 2.7 months supply and above that, demand drops sharply. The Victoria Core is very short on inventory is at 1.7 months supply; the Westshore is also strong with only a 2.3 month supply under $1M, but a large inventory in the $1M-$1.5M range and only 2 sales is at 18 month supply. Peninsula homes price under $1.5M had the highest demand leaving us with only a 1.5 month supply; again, above $1.5M, there is little demand on the Peninsula.

Condos: February sales exceeded February 2019 sales by 10% with strong demand in most areas except Oak Bay, View Royal, and Peninsula which still saw balanced market conditions with 5-6 months of supply and all areas exceeded their respective sales volume of February 2019. Price points are not diverging as dramatically as they are in the single family home market. Demand is very strong in condos under $650k, balanced at $650k-$800k and only a light buyer’s market above $800k (8.4 months supply). The Victoria core condos under $650k are at a 2.3 month supply (almost half the inventory sells every month) and above $650k we are balanced at 6.4 months of supply. Westshore is very strong under $500k but dropping significantly above that to an 11 month supply and only 2 sales last month. Peninsula condo demand varies by price range but is averaging 4.2 month supply under $800k, 20% of the Peninsula’s inventory is priced above $800k and there is a 16 month supply, averaging 1 sale a month.

Townhomes and Half Duplexes: high demand and low supply plague this segment of the market. Under $750k there is only a 1.8 month supply with 144 listings and 78 sales (more than half the inventory sells every month). Even above $750k we are in a balanced market with a 6 month supply. The 1 week trend shows that we could be moving to an even shorter supply as we are trending to 2.0 months of inventory.

October 2019 Review

Our South Island market continues to see high demand; sales volume dropped slightly to 511 from 530 but a decline in inventory has pushed our supply back to 3.5 months vs. 3.6 months in September.  Detached homes priced under $1M were particularly in strong demand and condos under $500k continue to be in very short supply.  The market slow down we saw in September continued part way into October before an absolute flurry of sales helped October finish strong.  The timing of this seemed to coincide with our Federal Election.

 Detached Homes: Sales volume overall increased by 10% and inventory dropped by 10% which quickly reversed a trend towards a balanced market.  Under $1M we are again down to 2.5 months supply similar to August.  Over $1M the market also saw increased sales in every segment including the $4M+ range.  The highest demand is being seen in the Core area where we are in uncharted demand: 1.6 months supply.  Home sales in the core increased 40% over September and 5% over August, inventory continues to drop and is down 18% from last month.  Interestingly, DOM for current listings is climbing and DOM for sold homes in the core is dropping; buyer scrutiny is still strong and pricing the homes correctly is still key in producing a sale.  The ratio of selling prices vs. assessed values has not changed much despite demand; homes priced $700k-$1M are selling on average for 101% to 105% of assessed value all year and averaged 104% in October.  Demand by area also saw significant changes, Oak Bay had the highest sales volume of the year only matched by June sales; supply is down to 3.7 months which is also the 2nd highest supply/demand ratio of the year.  The rest of the Core (Victoria, Saanich, Esquimalt, and View Royal) also saw significant increase in demand leaving the Core overall with only a 3.0 month supply; this is the highest demand all year.  Peninsula sales increased 20% and inventory dropped 10% bringing it down to a 4.6 months supply.  Westshore’s inventory stayed steady and sales dropped 10%, increasing the supply to 4.6 months (vs. 4.3 in Sept. and 3.6 in August). 

 Condos: Sales volume was down 20% overall giving us some relief on demand but, at 3.4 months supply, we are still far from a balanced market.  Condo demand in the Core under $500k is further exacerbated with a drop in inventory by 15% leaving us with a 1.4 month supply (more than 3/4 of inventory sell every month!).  Condos priced over $650k are not in demand at all at the moment, we are at 12.3 month supply overall and 13.4 months in the Core; sales dropped almost 50% over last month in the $650k+ segment.  Overall the Core area sales dropped only slightly leaving us with a 2.9 month supply vs. 2.6 months in September.  Westshore sales dropped the most and inventory increased slightly leaving us with 3.8 months supply vs. 2.1 last month.  Peninsula sales saw a 50% drop in sales and steady inventory pushing it into a seller’s market at 8.8 months supply; this could be a 1 month blip so lets review this in November.

 Townhomes and Half Duplexes: Sales volume increased 10% overall and inventory dropped 8%, decreasing supply to 3.1 months vs. 3.7 in September and 3.6 in August.  Victoria saw the largest increase in sales leaving us with merely a 1.3 month supply vs. 3.9 last month.  The Core overall saw large demand and supply is down to 2.1 months (51 sales and 107 listings).  Peninsula sales and inventory remained steady with 4.3 months supply.  Westshore sales dropped 40% and inventory climbed leaving us with a now balanced market at 5.1 months supply; this is the lowest demand all year for Westshore.


September 2019 Review 

Overall the South Island market remains strong with 530 sales and 1889 listings, which equates to a 3.6 month supply vs. 3.5 months in August.  Sales volume was down 5% and inventory was down 2.5%.  By price, luxury condos and detached homes continue to struggle and inventory remains high with very few sales.

Detached Homes: A 20% drop in sales for September compared to August is giving us a 4.4 month supply which is an almost balanced market; the short term markers indicate this trend will continue.  Under $1M we are up to 3.1 months supply vs. 2.5 in August which is still high demand and we are seeing more multiple offers. Between $1M and $1.5M demand is down to 4.6 month supply vs. 4.2 in August but still strong.  Homes over $1.5M remain at 16 months supply.  Most areas saw a drop in demand except for Fairfield/Rockland, Oak Bay, and Esquimalt which saw a little more demand than in August.  Selling prices in all regions remained relatively unchanged when compared to the assessed value.

Condos: Condo sales were up 10% over last month and inventory has dropped again, the demand is unrelenting!  Overall demand is up with a 2.7 month supply vs. 3.2 months in August.  Condos under $650k were in high demand in September and we are down to a 2.1 month supply, with 195 sales and 408 listings, vs. 2.6 months supply in August.  Core Condos under $650k are down to a 1.9 month supply (half the inventory is selling every month!).  Demand for condos over $800k dropped again and we are at a 13 months supply.  Many areas saw demand pick up with the Westshore having the hottest month all year with 33 sales and only 77 listings leaving us only a 2.1 month supply.  Esquimalt is also in a tough spot with 15 sales and only 10 listings left, leaving us with less than 1 month supply; Esquimalt also has seen the highest selling prices vs. their assessed values this year.

Towmhomes and Half Duplexes: Sales volume and inventory remained steady compared to last month.  We are still seeing strong demand and good turn over with only a 3.7 month supply.  The Peninsula had good results and is down to a 4.3 month supply, Saanich as well with only a 2.6 month supply now, and Victoria and Vic West also posted strong numbers and have dropped to a 3.9 month supply.

August 2019 Review

Overall: Market demand for the South Island remained strong with a 3.5 month supply vs. 3.4 months in July (August 31 inventory of 1937 listings with 561 sales in August).  Sales volume was down 6.5% compared to July and supply was down 5%.  A high demand for condos under $800k continues to be challenged by low supply; demand for detached homes under $1.0M are also in short supply with sales volume remaining higher than most months last year.  Inventory for luxury condos and homes remains high and demand is light.  Pricing has remained relatively unchanged overall.
Detached: Sales volume was identical to July but a drop in supply saw our supply ratio drop from 4.0 to 3.6 this month.  The supply drop happened mostly in homes priced under $1M.  Homes price over $1.5M are at 16 months of supply vs. 18 months in July. Demand for homes priced between $1M and $1.5M picked up a little and we are down to 4.2 months supply vs. 5.0 in July.  Under $1M, demand for homes picked up as well and we are down to a 2.5 month supply.  By area, the Core area showed stronger sales and a 11% drop in inventory pushing the supply down to 3.4 months.  Fairfield and Rockland are continuing to see a slow but steady drop in demand and the areas are up to a 5.4 month supply compared to 4.5 months for Victoria as a whole.  Saanich East and West demand remains strong with 3.5 and 1.5 months supply respectively.  Oak Bay also saw a few more sales compared to July and supply is down to 6.8 months from 8.7 in July.  Westshore remains relatively steady at 3.6 months supply.
Condos: Sales Volume dropped by 15 units, or 7%.  Demand relaxed slightly with an overall supply of 3.2 months vs. 2.9 in July but the market remains heated with multiple offers and back up offers on many, especially  in the market under $650k.  Condos priced $650k-$800k had a strong month with the supply now down to 4.1 months vs. 6.0 in July.  Condos over $800k also saw higher demand with supply at 8.7 months vs. 10.0 in July.  The overall drop in demand in condos took place mostly on the Westshore which now has a 3.8 month supply vs. 2.9 in July.  The core area was relatively unchanged at 2.8 months supply vs. 2.7 in July.  Peninsula was also steady at 4.8 months supply vs. 4.9 in July.
Townhouses and half duplexes: Sales volume also dropped 25% and demand has dropped significantly as well.  We are now at a 3.6 month supply vs. 2.7 months in July.  West Shore and Saanich are still in high demand with 2.5 months and 2.9 months supply respectively.  Victoria, View Royal, and the Peninsula have lost demand the most and are in a balanced market now.

July 2019 Review

Overall: Market demand remained steady in July with 3.4 months of inventory compared to June.  Sales volume was down 3.8% compared to last month but the supply ratio of listings vs. sales was steady.  Sales were up 18% compared to July 2018.  Average days on market for listings has crept up a little to 44 days (vs. 39) and sold listings also took a little longer with 29 days on market (vs. 27).  This overall market snapshot does not truly reflect our market conditions: we are continuing to see an increase in demand and lack of supply of condos and a steady demand of detached homes under $1M.  Demand for luxury condos and homes continues to falter and inventory is growing.

Detached: Sales volume is down 11% compared to last month and total demand has dropped to 4 months supply vs. 3.6 months in June and 2.9 months in May.  The decrease in demand is happening mostly with homes priced over $1.5M where we are now at an 18 month supply of homes on the South Island.  Homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are in a balanced market at 5 months supply, and has been fairly consistent all year.  Homes priced under $1M are still in strong demand with 2.7 months supply, which is still a strong Sellers Market.  By area, the core areas (Victoria, Oak Bay, Saanich, Esquimalt, View Royal) are seeing an overall drop in demand but is disproportionate because of the high listings volume of luxury homes.  The demand for homes under $1M in the core is high with only 2.3 months supply (210 listings and 91 sales).  Demand on the Peninsula remains strong with a 4.0 months supply of inventory.  Westshore and Sooke also remain strong with 3.8 months supply and 3.5 months respectively.

Condos: Sales volume is up 2% over last month and is up 18% over July 2018.  Demand remains very strong with only 2.9 months supply overall; condos under $650k are at a 2.2 month supply (almost half the inventory sells every month!); condos priced $650k-$800k are in a balanced market with 6 months supply; over $800k we are continuing to see a drop in demand with 10 month supply vs. 7 months in June.  By area, the core remains in very strong demand with only 2.7 months supply and a 2.0 month supply for condos under $650k.  Westshore demand is also strong with only 2.9 months supply; the Peninsula and Sooke are in a balanced market with 4.9 months and 5.0 months supply respectively.

Townhomes and half duplexes: Demand has picked up again with an increase in sales volume of 12% over last month and, with a drop in listings, we are down to a 2.7 month supply.  All areas on the South Island have a fairly consistent demand and range from a low of 1.8 months supply in Sooke to a high of 3.4 months on the Westshore.

Please note that my figures vary slightly to those of the Victoria Real Estate Board because I am focusing my research on the South Island and I exclude the Gulf Islands, the Malahat and areas north of the Malahat.

June 2019 Review

Overall: market demand was slightly lower with 3.4 months of supply vs. 2.9 last month; there were 2108 active listings and 626 units sold.  Prices remained relatively unchanged.  Sales volume was down 14% from last month but still 4.5% higher than June 2018.  Average days on market is up to 39 days vs. 32 last month.  Sold units also took longer at 27 days vs. 20 days in May.

Detached: sales down 13% vs. last month but sales were 12% higher compared to last June.  Detached home supply is up slightly to 3.6 months vs. 3.2 last month.  Listing volume is similar to last month.  Victoria and Vic West saw the larger decrease in demand, dropping to 3.8 months vs. 2.7 last month.  Demand in most other core areas remained steady or saw an increase in demand.  Westshore demand dropped to 3.9 months supply vs. 3.0 last month and Sooke really dropped with a 4.8 month supply vs. 3.0 last month. By price, under $1M is still hot with only a 2.6 months supply and only a 3% drop in sales vs. May.  Even $1M-$1.5M is still very much in demand at 4.2 months supply vs. 5.0 last month.  Sales over $1.5M continue to slow with no decrease in inventory.  Oak Bay homes only seem to be in demand under $1.5M and are at a 2.5 month supply, above $1.5M we are at 18 month supply at the moment with only 4 sales and 73 listings.

Condo: demand remains strong with 3.1 months supply vs. 2.8 last month.  Sales volume is down 11% over last month and was similar to a year ago.  Demand in the core remained strong with only 2.8 months supply.  Peninsula sales dropped significantly and now have a 5.6 month supply (balanced market). Westshore sales were very strong last month with a 30% increase in sales and supply is down to 2.9 months now vs. 4.3 a month ago.  By price, condos under $500k are still in extreme demand at 2.3 months supply; volume was slightly lower but listings are down too so the ratio is similar.  $500k-$650k sales increased and demand is still strong at 3.8 months supply.  Sales over $650k were down significantly and we are moving towards a Buyer's market with 6.8 months supply.

Townhomes and half duplex: demand dropped to 3.3 months vs. 2.4 last month but the 1 week trend is strong so I expect to see continued strong sales in July. Victoria Core demand saw the largest decrease from 1.9 months supply last month to 3.0 months; Peninsula saw an increase in sales and demand is up with 3.4 months supply vs. 4.1 last month.

May 2019 Review

The overall housing market on the South Island is seeing very strong demand and competition with 2.9 months of inventory.  A total of 727 sales were reported which is 30% higher than May 2018.  These sales figures do not include the Malahat or the Gulf Islands.
Detached homes: Continued strong demand is pushing inventory down to a 3.2 month supply overall; sales volume for May was 363 units which is the highest 1 month volume in over a year.  Oak Bay and the Peninsula are in a balanced market with 5.1 months and 4.5 months respectively.  Sales volume is similar to May 2018.  Victoria and Saanich sales were the highest in over a year and supply is down to 2.7 months.  Esquimalt and View Royal, although smaller volume, are at a 2.0 month supply creating a very competitive environment for buyers.  Westshore and Sooke had strong sales and are at a 3.0 months supply.  By price, homes under $1M are in extremely short supply with 2.2 months of inventory (632 listings and 287 sales in May).  $1M - $1.5M are balanced at a 5 month supply, $1.5M-$2.5M are at 7.3 months, $2.5M-$3.2M is still seeing decent turn over with a 10 month supply.  Over $3.2M, homes are selling at a pace of 0.8 homes per month with a 3+ year supply.  This is in sharp contrast to a year ago when all homes over $1.5M were at a 3.2 month supply.  A lack of Vancouver and international buyers has shifted our luxury home market.
Condos: Tremendous sales volume for May with 239 units, is the highest volume month in over a year.  Inventory is down to 2.8 months supply with 678 listings.  Victoria and the Core as a whole are at a 2.5 month supply with a high sales volume of 191 units.  Peninsula inventory is at 3.5 months supply which has been a fairly steady number for most of the past year.  Westshore inventory  is at a nearly balanced market with 4.3 months supply and 25 units sold.  Westshore volume has been steady this year but is down 30% compared to May 2018.  By price, condos under $500k are at a 2.1 month supply so half the inventory is selling every month; condos between $500k and $1M are averaging a 4 month supply which still a fast paced but almost balanced market.  Condos over $1M are at 14 months supply and averaging 5 units a month which is down 50% over last year’s average.
Half Duplex and Townhomes: A continued lack of supply and strong demand is keeping this market very competitive.  Overall, there is a 2.4 month supply of homes.  The Core area only has a 1.9 month supply with 125 listings and 65 sales in May.  The Peninsula is almost balanced at 4.1 months supply; Westshore and Sooke are also highly competitive at 2.6 months supply.

Wednesday May 15, 2019

Townhouse Buyers fight in the streets!  No, not really but that is what market figures are indicating this week.  
Half Duplex and Townhome sales are up and inventory is down with a 2.9 month supply compared to 3.7 months last week.  Victoria and Vic West had the strongest gains and supply is down to 1.4 months with 37 listings and 26 sales in last 30 days (70% of inventory is selling every month!).  The core is at 2.3 months vs. 2.8 months and the 1 week trend is indicating the demand remains extremely strong and supply may drop further.
Detached homes remained steady at 3.3 months supply with Victoria and Vic West showing a slight slow down and is up to 4.1 months supply vs. 3.4 a week ago. The Core is steady at 3.2 months overall.  Inventory under $1M is at 2.3 months supply so demand remains very strong, $1M - $1.5M is well balanced at 5 months supply.  Over $1.5M is at 13 months supply with 272 listings and only 21 sales in the last 30 days.  By unit volume, inventory over $1.5M is currently 1/3 of our overall detached inventory.
Condos saw a slight slow down with 3.4 months supply vs. 3.1 months last week; the 1 week trend indicates further softening of the market.  Victoria and Vic West demand remained steady with no change in months of supply, Saanich, View Royal, and Westshore lost demand and increased supply.  By price, 0-$425k condos are still extremely strong with 2.2 months supply, $500k-$800k is a well balanced market with 5.1 months supply and $800k+ is at 8.3 months supply bringing this luxury segment into a light Buyer’s market.
Overall, the market for all housing remained at 3.3 months supply with 2,086 listings and 638 sales in the last 30 days.  The 1 week trend looks strong so I expect the supply to remain low.

Wednesday May 8, 2019

Another week of strong numbers to report.  Overall inventory is up 6.5% from a week ago (2,041 vs. 1,915) but demand continues to keep pace with 626 pending in the last 30 days keeping us steady at 3.3 months supply.  Days on market for sold listings is at 22 days overall and current listings are averaging 30 days. The strong market is happening in detached homes under $1.5M and condos under $650k.

Detached: Supply remains steady at 3.3 months but supply ratio under $1M is continuing to shrink and is down to 2.3 months supply; compare this to 3.3 months 2 months ago.  Even $1M-$1.5M supply is at 2.7 months now.  Inventory over $1.5M is steady at about 13 months supply.  By area, demand remains consistent and there are no significant changes to any one area.  Sale price vs. assessment also remains steady at 101-102% in the Core area and at 105% on the Westshore.

Condo: Supply is steady at 3.1 months with condos under $425k at 2.1 months supply vs. 2.5 months in early March.  The flood of new construction listings in Victoria continues to keep supply higher in town but increased sales volume has brought the ratio down a little again.  There were 101 sales in the last 30 days for Vic and Vic West alone, that is 50% of the total sales volume of the South Island for the last 30 days.  Sales of luxury condos ($800k+) also saw an increase and the supply is down to 6.9 months which is a healthy balanced market.

Townhomes and half duplex: Supply increased a little and is up to 3.7 months (318 listings and 87 sales).  Sales are down a little but the Core area is still at a very strong 2.8 months supply.  Pricing remains steady 103-104% of assessment on average.

Wednesday May 1, 2019

April is done! Another strong month overall with 606 sales compared to 550 in March with 1915 listings vs. 1670 last month giving us a 3.2 month supply vs. 3.0 months. The number of active listings is up vs. last month but so are the sales; demand is still keeping up with the listings increases. The average sold listing spent 20 days on market and the average current listing has been 33 days on market. Smart pricing seems to be critical in this market as we are seeing overpriced listings being left out and properly priced listings selling quickly, often ending in multiple offer scenarios.

Detached: Supply is steady at 3.3 months and unchanged from March so it's still a fast paced market with homes under $1M dropping to only 2.3 months supply vs. 2.5 months in March. Even up to $2.5M the market gained strength. The market has lost a little more momentum over $2.5M. Victoria with Vic West was particularly strong last month currently at 2.7 months supply. Oak Bay is maintaining a balanced market at 5.2 months supply. Selling prices saw a slight increase of 1% vs. assessment on average compared to a month ago. Average days on market for sold homes was 21 days vs. 23 days in March.

Condos: Supply increased a little from 2.7 months in March to 3.0 months in April with 198 sales and 598 active listings. Both Victoria/Vic West and Westshore saw a flood of new construction units being listed on MLS this month. Have new construction sales slumped and are developers looking for better marketing through MLS? One quarter of Victoria and Vic West’s current MLS inventory is built 2019+ now. Victoria saw the most dramatic change with inventory increasing from 2.3 months supply to 3.1 months as sales slowed along with the increase in inventory. Westshore saw a similar slow down with 4.1 months of supply now vs. 3.5 months in March. By price, listings between $300k and $425k saw the largest increase in sales and only moderate listing increases, putting even more pressure on this segment and leaving us at 1.9 months supply (half the inventory sells every month!). Condos over $800k are seeing a slow down and our inventory is up to 9+ months supply. Average days on market for sold condos remains at 21 days.

Townhomes and 1/2 Duplex: Overall there was a slight bump in supply from 3.0 to 3.1 months with Sooke and the Peninsula showing the biggest slow down. Victoria on the other hand saw more demand and is now at only 1.7 months supply vs. 2.2 months in March. Selling prices have remained steady for townhomes and duplexes when compared to assessments. Average days on market for sold townhomes and duplexes was 17 days vs. 23 days last month.

If you are interested in how your home and neighbourhood are performing in this market, please let me know. Home market evaluations are free.

Wednesday April 24, 2019

The spring market certainly isn’t disappointing, with sales volume still matching this time last year.  We are seeing just a little softening overall with supply creeping up to 3.1 months vs. 2.9 months last week and the 1 week trend is indicating a further increase to 3.5 months but let’s see what the month end brings.  Average days on market is 19 days for the overall housing market, townhomes at 16 days, Condos at 18 days, and detached at 21 days.
Detached: Sales volume dropped a little and inventory is up slightly so we are at 3.4 months supply and the 1 week trend is indicating further slowing, closer to 4 months supply but let’s see what next week brings.  The core remains at 3.3 months supply and the only area with noticeable change was the Westshore, supply increased to 4.2 months.  By price, 0-$1M remained steady at 2.5 months supply so most of the slow down happened over $1M.  
Condo: The core area supply bumped up to 3.1 months vs. 2.5 last week but this change was created in Esquimalt and View Royal as Victoria and Saanich supply stayed steady.  Overall, the South Island condo market remains hot at 3.0 months supply vs. 2.8 months last week; the 1 week trend indicates a further slight softening so lets see what the month end numbers show next week.  By price, 0-$650k remains strong at 2.4 months supply although under $425k saw a loss in supply and $425k-$650k saw a gain.  The overall condo supply gain is seen mostly in the $650k+ range, now averaging 6.6 months supply.
Townhouses and 1/2 Duplex: Victoria and Vic West are moving at a blistering pace and are now down to 1.6 months supply with 36 listings and 22 sales in the last 30 days.  All other areas remained steady compared to the last few weeks and the 1 week trend shows a slight softening and we may reach a 3 month supply overall.
Remember,  5-7 months supply is considered a balanced market so most of our market segments continue to be well below that.

Wednesday April 17, 2019

Overall, we are down to a 2.9 month supply with 631 sales in last 30 days and 1846 listings.  We are averaging 20 days on market. An increase in luxury sales both in detached homes and condos have brought supply to more balanced levels again.

Detached: Phew !  Detached homes have NOT stopped selling :)  Last week certainly was the biggest 1 week blip I have seen so far but we seem to be back on track for a hot market.  Overall supply is down to 3.1 months and we are trending to a 3 month supply.
By area, the core is down to 3.3 months supply, Peninsula down to 3.0 months, Westshore down to 3.2 months, and Sooke 2.7 months which is the lowest in over a year for each of them.  Oak Bay saw more sales and inventory is down to 4.4 months supply with homes under $1.5M down to a measly 2.6 months supply.  
By price, under $1M we remain at 2.4 months supply with 574 listings and 243 sales, but under $700k we are at a 2 month supply so half the homes listed sell every month!  $1M - $1.5M had stronger sales as well and inventory is down to 3.7 months supply, over $1.5M sales also increased a little and we are at 11.5 month supply which is healthy for the luxury market and homes over $2.5M selling at an average of 71 days on market.

Condos: Sales continue to be strong and we are back to the same volume as this time last year with 201 units sold and are still at a 2.8 month supply; the 1 week trend is looking even stronger down to 2.6 months.
By area, West Shore continues to soften and we are up to a 4.6 month supply (sales are steady but listings are up).  The core is at 2.5 months supply vs. 2.6 last week with the highest gains in Saanich which is at 1.9 months supply now.
By price, under $650k we are at 2.4 months supply (lots of competing offers), over $650k we saw a few more sales and are at 5.5 months.  Even $1M+ condos are still at 6.4 months supply which is a healthy balanced market.  Victoria and Vic West condos are averaging $578 per square foot, Saanich is averaging $418 per foot, Peninsula at $472 per foot, and Westshore without Sooke is at $466 per foot.  This is within a few % of last year’s spring market in each area.

Townhouses and 1/2 Duplex: Strong demand here as well and we are down to a 2.6 month supply overall with 106 sales in the last 30 days which is the highest sales volume since 2017.  The one week trend is much weaker so we’ll see how next week’s numbers compare.
By area, the core is down to 2.1 month supply, Westshore is down to 3.0 months

Attached in the sheets this week is a break down of Oak Bay detached homes by price range, the sheet is small because I only have a few weeks of statistics.

Wishing Everyone some family time this weekend!  Happy Easter long weekend!

Wednesday April 10, 2019

The biggest blip on my radar was the 1 week trend for the overall market: it says we are moving to 4 months supply overall.  Having averaged roughly 3 months supply before, this was a bit of a shock.  I thought maybe it was because of month end and lots of deals were posted at the end of March and the spring listings have ballooned, but I found the change was isolated to detached homes.  The condo and townhouse markets continue to show low supply, 2.8 and 2.7 months respectively.  So what happened to detached?  The 1 week trend is for 5 months supply… a balanced market??? Not so fast I think but next Wednesday will be more telling for sure.  Looking at detached by price, supply of homes priced under $1M remains unchanged and very low at 2.4 months supply.  Inventory is up by 10% but so are sales so demand remains strong.  The big change is happening over $1M, a significant increase in listings (13%) but sales have remained steady; sales are still reasonably strong but our increasing inventory is  impacting the supply/demand ratio.  Again, 1 week does not tell a market so let's watch what happens this week.

Detached: The intro above covers the sub $1M market fairly well.  Homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are still moving well with a 4.4 month supply vs. 4.2 at end of March.  Over $1.5M we are seeing a steady rise in inventory without a change in sales volume.  We are averaging 16 months supply for $1.5M + . By area, Victoria and Vic West have dropped in supply down to 3.5 months from 4.3 months a week ago; listings are steady but sales have increased.  Oak Bay saw more listings and steady sales and the supply is up to 6 months which is a healthy balanced market.  Although, homes under $1.5M in Oak Bay are in high demand with 2.9 months supply.  Prices have not changed measurably for any price range.  By area, prices have increased a little in Victoria and Vic West reflecting the recent stronger demand.  Westshore with Sooke are seeing the highest price increases over last year.

Condos: Inventory is up but so are sales this week, the market is relatively unchanged at 2.8 months supply which is tough for buyers and we are seeing competing offers again.  Inventory climbed a little in the Westshore market and we are up to 4.3 months supply vs. 3.5 last week so certainly not as hectic as downtown Victoria, Saanich, and Peninsula areas which are averaging 2.6 months supply.  By price, condos under $650k are still in hot demand with barely 2.3 months supply.  Over $650k the market is fairly balanced at 6 months supply in the different price segments.

Townhouse and 1/2 Duplex: Demand remains strong for townhomes and half duplexes.  Supply dropped to 2.7 months supply which is the lowest it has been since last spring.  Listings are up 25% since January but sales volume has more than doubled in that time.  The core areas (Victoria, Saanich, Esquimalt and View Royal) are in highest demand with a 2.2 month supply.

Wednesday April 3, 2019

This week we will have a look at the month of March in review.  What a month!  March finished exceptionally strong and for the South Island we are down to 3 months of supply (1,670 listings and 550 pending/sold) with an average 21 days on market.  These numbers are a little different from what VREB posts because they do not include outlying areas like Malahat and Gulf Islands.

Detached: all areas saw strong sales and a shrinking supply along with short days on market.  The Core averaged just 14 days on market.  March sales beat March 2018 sales 270 vs. 241.  The two weakest regions of the year, Sooke and Peninsula, saw very strong numbers in March and are now at a 3.0 and 3.2 month supply respectively.  Sold prices vs. Assessed value show that Oak Bay is weakest at an average of 88% and Saanich West and Westshore (incl. Sooke) are strongest at 108% and 107%.  Looking at price points, detached under $1M only has a 2.4 month supply and $1M-$1.5M is at 4.2 months.  $1.5M-$2.5M has 14 months supply and over $2.5M we are in a strong Buyer’s Market at an over 2 year supply.  The median detached home price for March was $785,000 which is a little under the peak median price which happened in May and October last year, $825,000 and $829,000 respectively.

Condos: We are down to a 2.7 month supply overall and sales volume was higher than March 2018 with 194 sales compared to 170.  Most areas saw strong sales and decreased supply except Sooke.  Days on Market averaged 19.  The supply in Victoria and Vic West is down to 2.3 months with 94 sales and 220 listings, these levels are similar to last year's fast paced market.  By price, under $650k we are at a 2.2 month supply, $650k-$1M at 5 months supply (barely balanced market) and even luxury condos over $1M saw strong sales and we are down to a 6 month supply which is a healthy balanced market.  The median condo price in March was $430,000; this is the highest median price ever for Greater Victoria.

Townhouse and 1/2 Duplex: 3 months supply is what’s left over after a very strong March and these homes had an average of 18 days on market.  All areas saw strong sales and a reduction in supply.  Victoria and Vic West are down to a 2.2 month supply and the core remains strong at 2.5 month supply.  Median price for Townhomes was $547,400 which equals the average median price for 2018.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment. Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-7 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 27, 2019

Here are the latest market trends. If your neighbourhood isn't mentioned, let me know, I'm happy to give you a summary for your area.
Detached: Overall sales and inventory have remained steady, keeping us at a 3.6 months supply and in a Seller's market. By area, Oak Bay slowed down the most and supply increased from 4.8 months last week to 6.8 months this week; I expect these numbers to revert somewhat in 2 weeks after the effects of spring break are behind us. Westshore saw higher sales and only a few more listings so the supply reduced from 3.8 months to 3.5 months. By price, the market is remaining strong and supply low for anything under $1.5M with only 2.9 months supply and averaging 23 days on market; the slow down continues for anything over $1.5M with a supply of 22 months now for homes up to $4M and as before, the market for homes over $4M is unique but sales have slowed significantly. Listings were averaging 73 days on market a year ago and the current listings are now on market an average of 135 days. 2 sales in the last 6 months and a total of 10 sales in the last 12 months.
Condo: The 1 week trend is showing a slow down overall for condos but these numbers are being biased by condos over $650k, where sales slowed. Under $650k we are still at a 2.4 month supply, which is a tough market to shop in and a great market to sell in. Again I think the spring break vacations are temporarily impacting luxury sales. There were no significant changes to any one geographic area.
Townhouses and Duplex: Townhouses bucked the trend this week; more sales and steady listing count led to a reduction in supply down to 3.4 months from 4.1 (259 listings and 76 sales in 30 days); we are definitely in a Seller’s market now. The one week trend is showing an even stronger market so we’ll see what next Wednesday has to offer for numbers.
By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment. Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-7 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 20, 2019

Spring has Sprung!

What a Week!

Spring has really sprung and we saw strong sales across the board that outpaced the increase in listings in most segments and price ranges.  Even the Peninsula has caught up in Detached homes and Condos.

Detached: Overall we are down to a 3.6 month supply vs. 4.2 months a week ago despite more listings.  The 1 week trend indicates we could be heading to 2.5 month supply soon.  Detached under $1M are already at 2.6 month supply and dropping (501 listings and 193 sold in the last 30 days). Despite being in a strong Seller's Market, we have not seen significant price increases.  Detached under $1.5M  has supply shrinking, $1.5M - $2.5M  has supply continuing to increase and is now at 15 months supply.  $2.5M - $4M is at a 20 month supply based on 6 months selling average and $4M+ has had 2 sales in 6 months with 21 listings (5 year supply).

Condos: The Crisis continues and the trend is for an even hotter market.  the whole South Island is down to 2.7 months supply vs. 3.2 last week; the one week trend shows a less than 2.5 months supply is coming.  Listing volume is about the same as last week but sales are up.  Condo prices are seeing price increases as well with Victoria and Vic West cracking $600 per s/f on average and avering 104% of assessed value.  By price, anything under $800k is in strong demand; even $800k-$1M is now a balanced market at 6 months supply.  Over $1M is now at a 9 month supply which is similar to what we had in June last year.

Townhouses and Duplexes: Sales have eased a little but still only 4.1 months supply; the one week trend shows a further softening to 4.5 months supply.

See you next week for a new update.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 13, 2019

Condo Crisis !

That's my theme for the week.  Listings are up but sales are outpacing the inventory increases.  The core is at 2.9 months supply (336 listed, 117 sold in last 30 days) but if we look at condos under $500,000 we are at a 2.1 month supply; a strong Seller's Market.  $500k - $800k condos are at a 4.2 month supply and $800 - $1M at 7.5 months.  Westshore and Sooke have recovered from the last few weeks of low sales and their supply is down to 3.3 months now as well.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Detached Homes: The Oak Bay frency for homes priced between $1.5M and $2.5M has eased and is approaching a Balanced Market of 5 months supply.  The core (Oak Bay, Victoria, Esquimalt, Saanich, and View Royal) is at a 3.8 months supply and is holding steady.  Homes priced under $1M are in highest demand in the core with a 3.3 month supply.  Core homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are at a 4.4 month supply.  Langford, Colwood, and Highlands detached home sales have eased a little and are approaching a balanced market at 4.9 months supply.  The Peninsula sales are steady and in a Balanced Market with 5.4 months supply (125 listings and 23 sold in last 30 days). A noticeable change is what is happening over $1.5M; $1.5M-$2.5M has a 12 month supply, $2.5M - $4M at 24 months, $4M+ has seen 2 sales in 6 months on the South Island and is at a 5 year supply with 21 listings. 

Townhomes and 1/2 Duplexes: The demand for these homes is mostly strong and the core is at a 2.5 month supply, Westshore at 4.7 months, and trending dowards a Buyer's Market is the Peninsula with a 7.1 month supply.

Summary: The demand for housing on the South Island continues to be strong and inventory is in short supply.  Year over Year (Feb.) Victoria has seen a 2.8% increase in the average home price and Vancouver Island as a whole, a 3.5% increase.  This is despite a slow down in sales volume of 21.7% and 27.9% respectively.