Wednesday April 17, 2019

Overall, we are down to a 2.9 month supply with 631 sales in last 30 days and 1846 listings.  We are averaging 20 days on market. An increase in luxury sales both in detached homes and condos have brought supply to more balanced levels again.

Detached: Phew !  Detached homes have NOT stopped selling :)  Last week certainly was the biggest 1 week blip I have seen so far but we seem to be back on track for a hot market.  Overall supply is down to 3.1 months and we are trending to a 3 month supply.
By area, the core is down to 3.3 months supply, Peninsula down to 3.0 months, Westshore down to 3.2 months, and Sooke 2.7 months which is the lowest in over a year for each of them.  Oak Bay saw more sales and inventory is down to 4.4 months supply with homes under $1.5M down to a measly 2.6 months supply.  
By price, under $1M we remain at 2.4 months supply with 574 listings and 243 sales, but under $700k we are at a 2 month supply so half the homes listed sell every month!  $1M - $1.5M had stronger sales as well and inventory is down to 3.7 months supply, over $1.5M sales also increased a little and we are at 11.5 month supply which is healthy for the luxury market and homes over $2.5M selling at an average of 71 days on market.

Condos: Sales continue to be strong and we are back to the same volume as this time last year with 201 units sold and are still at a 2.8 month supply; the 1 week trend is looking even stronger down to 2.6 months.
By area, West Shore continues to soften and we are up to a 4.6 month supply (sales are steady but listings are up).  The core is at 2.5 months supply vs. 2.6 last week with the highest gains in Saanich which is at 1.9 months supply now.
By price, under $650k we are at 2.4 months supply (lots of competing offers), over $650k we saw a few more sales and are at 5.5 months.  Even $1M+ condos are still at 6.4 months supply which is a healthy balanced market.  Victoria and Vic West condos are averaging $578 per square foot, Saanich is averaging $418 per foot, Peninsula at $472 per foot, and Westshore without Sooke is at $466 per foot.  This is within a few % of last year’s spring market in each area.

Townhouses and 1/2 Duplex: Strong demand here as well and we are down to a 2.6 month supply overall with 106 sales in the last 30 days which is the highest sales volume since 2017.  The one week trend is much weaker so we’ll see how next week’s numbers compare.
By area, the core is down to 2.1 month supply, Westshore is down to 3.0 months

Attached in the sheets this week is a break down of Oak Bay detached homes by price range, the sheet is small because I only have a few weeks of statistics.

Wishing Everyone some family time this weekend!  Happy Easter long weekend!

Wednesday April 10, 2019

The biggest blip on my radar was the 1 week trend for the overall market: it says we are moving to 4 months supply overall.  Having averaged roughly 3 months supply before, this was a bit of a shock.  I thought maybe it was because of month end and lots of deals were posted at the end of March and the spring listings have ballooned, but I found the change was isolated to detached homes.  The condo and townhouse markets continue to show low supply, 2.8 and 2.7 months respectively.  So what happened to detached?  The 1 week trend is for 5 months supply… a balanced market??? Not so fast I think but next Wednesday will be more telling for sure.  Looking at detached by price, supply of homes priced under $1M remains unchanged and very low at 2.4 months supply.  Inventory is up by 10% but so are sales so demand remains strong.  The big change is happening over $1M, a significant increase in listings (13%) but sales have remained steady; sales are still reasonably strong but our increasing inventory is  impacting the supply/demand ratio.  Again, 1 week does not tell a market so let's watch what happens this week.

Detached: The intro above covers the sub $1M market fairly well.  Homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are still moving well with a 4.4 month supply vs. 4.2 at end of March.  Over $1.5M we are seeing a steady rise in inventory without a change in sales volume.  We are averaging 16 months supply for $1.5M + . By area, Victoria and Vic West have dropped in supply down to 3.5 months from 4.3 months a week ago; listings are steady but sales have increased.  Oak Bay saw more listings and steady sales and the supply is up to 6 months which is a healthy balanced market.  Although, homes under $1.5M in Oak Bay are in high demand with 2.9 months supply.  Prices have not changed measurably for any price range.  By area, prices have increased a little in Victoria and Vic West reflecting the recent stronger demand.  Westshore with Sooke are seeing the highest price increases over last year.

Condos: Inventory is up but so are sales this week, the market is relatively unchanged at 2.8 months supply which is tough for buyers and we are seeing competing offers again.  Inventory climbed a little in the Westshore market and we are up to 4.3 months supply vs. 3.5 last week so certainly not as hectic as downtown Victoria, Saanich, and Peninsula areas which are averaging 2.6 months supply.  By price, condos under $650k are still in hot demand with barely 2.3 months supply.  Over $650k the market is fairly balanced at 6 months supply in the different price segments.

Townhouse and 1/2 Duplex: Demand remains strong for townhomes and half duplexes.  Supply dropped to 2.7 months supply which is the lowest it has been since last spring.  Listings are up 25% since January but sales volume has more than doubled in that time.  The core areas (Victoria, Saanich, Esquimalt and View Royal) are in highest demand with a 2.2 month supply.

Wednesday April 3, 2019

This week we will have a look at the month of March in review.  What a month!  March finished exceptionally strong and for the South Island we are down to 3 months of supply (1,670 listings and 550 pending/sold) with an average 21 days on market.  These numbers are a little different from what VREB posts because they do not include outlying areas like Malahat and Gulf Islands.

Detached: all areas saw strong sales and a shrinking supply along with short days on market.  The Core averaged just 14 days on market.  March sales beat March 2018 sales 270 vs. 241.  The two weakest regions of the year, Sooke and Peninsula, saw very strong numbers in March and are now at a 3.0 and 3.2 month supply respectively.  Sold prices vs. Assessed value show that Oak Bay is weakest at an average of 88% and Saanich West and Westshore (incl. Sooke) are strongest at 108% and 107%.  Looking at price points, detached under $1M only has a 2.4 month supply and $1M-$1.5M is at 4.2 months.  $1.5M-$2.5M has 14 months supply and over $2.5M we are in a strong Buyer’s Market at an over 2 year supply.  The median detached home price for March was $785,000 which is a little under the peak median price which happened in May and October last year, $825,000 and $829,000 respectively.

Condos: We are down to a 2.7 month supply overall and sales volume was higher than March 2018 with 194 sales compared to 170.  Most areas saw strong sales and decreased supply except Sooke.  Days on Market averaged 19.  The supply in Victoria and Vic West is down to 2.3 months with 94 sales and 220 listings, these levels are similar to last year's fast paced market.  By price, under $650k we are at a 2.2 month supply, $650k-$1M at 5 months supply (barely balanced market) and even luxury condos over $1M saw strong sales and we are down to a 6 month supply which is a healthy balanced market.  The median condo price in March was $430,000; this is the highest median price ever for Greater Victoria.

Townhouse and 1/2 Duplex: 3 months supply is what’s left over after a very strong March and these homes had an average of 18 days on market.  All areas saw strong sales and a reduction in supply.  Victoria and Vic West are down to a 2.2 month supply and the core remains strong at 2.5 month supply.  Median price for Townhomes was $547,400 which equals the average median price for 2018.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment. Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-7 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 27, 2019

Here are the latest market trends. If your neighbourhood isn't mentioned, let me know, I'm happy to give you a summary for your area.
 
Detached: Overall sales and inventory have remained steady, keeping us at a 3.6 months supply and in a Seller's market. By area, Oak Bay slowed down the most and supply increased from 4.8 months last week to 6.8 months this week; I expect these numbers to revert somewhat in 2 weeks after the effects of spring break are behind us. Westshore saw higher sales and only a few more listings so the supply reduced from 3.8 months to 3.5 months. By price, the market is remaining strong and supply low for anything under $1.5M with only 2.9 months supply and averaging 23 days on market; the slow down continues for anything over $1.5M with a supply of 22 months now for homes up to $4M and as before, the market for homes over $4M is unique but sales have slowed significantly. Listings were averaging 73 days on market a year ago and the current listings are now on market an average of 135 days. 2 sales in the last 6 months and a total of 10 sales in the last 12 months.
 
Condo: The 1 week trend is showing a slow down overall for condos but these numbers are being biased by condos over $650k, where sales slowed. Under $650k we are still at a 2.4 month supply, which is a tough market to shop in and a great market to sell in. Again I think the spring break vacations are temporarily impacting luxury sales. There were no significant changes to any one geographic area.
 
Townhouses and Duplex: Townhouses bucked the trend this week; more sales and steady listing count led to a reduction in supply down to 3.4 months from 4.1 (259 listings and 76 sales in 30 days); we are definitely in a Seller’s market now. The one week trend is showing an even stronger market so we’ll see what next Wednesday has to offer for numbers.
 
By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment. Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-7 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 20, 2019

Spring has Sprung!

What a Week!

Spring has really sprung and we saw strong sales across the board that outpaced the increase in listings in most segments and price ranges.  Even the Peninsula has caught up in Detached homes and Condos.

Detached: Overall we are down to a 3.6 month supply vs. 4.2 months a week ago despite more listings.  The 1 week trend indicates we could be heading to 2.5 month supply soon.  Detached under $1M are already at 2.6 month supply and dropping (501 listings and 193 sold in the last 30 days). Despite being in a strong Seller's Market, we have not seen significant price increases.  Detached under $1.5M  has supply shrinking, $1.5M - $2.5M  has supply continuing to increase and is now at 15 months supply.  $2.5M - $4M is at a 20 month supply based on 6 months selling average and $4M+ has had 2 sales in 6 months with 21 listings (5 year supply).

Condos: The Crisis continues and the trend is for an even hotter market.  the whole South Island is down to 2.7 months supply vs. 3.2 last week; the one week trend shows a less than 2.5 months supply is coming.  Listing volume is about the same as last week but sales are up.  Condo prices are seeing price increases as well with Victoria and Vic West cracking $600 per s/f on average and avering 104% of assessed value.  By price, anything under $800k is in strong demand; even $800k-$1M is now a balanced market at 6 months supply.  Over $1M is now at a 9 month supply which is similar to what we had in June last year.

Townhouses and Duplexes: Sales have eased a little but still only 4.1 months supply; the one week trend shows a further softening to 4.5 months supply.

See you next week for a new update.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Wednesday March 13, 2019

Condo Crisis !

That's my theme for the week.  Listings are up but sales are outpacing the inventory increases.  The core is at 2.9 months supply (336 listed, 117 sold in last 30 days) but if we look at condos under $500,000 we are at a 2.1 month supply; a strong Seller's Market.  $500k - $800k condos are at a 4.2 month supply and $800 - $1M at 7.5 months.  Westshore and Sooke have recovered from the last few weeks of low sales and their supply is down to 3.3 months now as well.

By calculating how many months supply there are in different areas and price segments, we see what is in demand and can use it to help determine the right buying or selling strategy to use in order to maximize the return on your investment.  Industry averages state that less than 4 months supply is considered a Seller's Market, 5-6 months supply a Balanced Market, and 8+ months supply a Buyer's Market.

Detached Homes: The Oak Bay frency for homes priced between $1.5M and $2.5M has eased and is approaching a Balanced Market of 5 months supply.  The core (Oak Bay, Victoria, Esquimalt, Saanich, and View Royal) is at a 3.8 months supply and is holding steady.  Homes priced under $1M are in highest demand in the core with a 3.3 month supply.  Core homes priced between $1M and $1.5M are at a 4.4 month supply.  Langford, Colwood, and Highlands detached home sales have eased a little and are approaching a balanced market at 4.9 months supply.  The Peninsula sales are steady and in a Balanced Market with 5.4 months supply (125 listings and 23 sold in last 30 days). A noticeable change is what is happening over $1.5M; $1.5M-$2.5M has a 12 month supply, $2.5M - $4M at 24 months, $4M+ has seen 2 sales in 6 months on the South Island and is at a 5 year supply with 21 listings. 

Townhomes and 1/2 Duplexes: The demand for these homes is mostly strong and the core is at a 2.5 month supply, Westshore at 4.7 months, and trending dowards a Buyer's Market is the Peninsula with a 7.1 month supply.

Summary: The demand for housing on the South Island continues to be strong and inventory is in short supply.  Year over Year (Feb.) Victoria has seen a 2.8% increase in the average home price and Vancouver Island as a whole, a 3.5% increase.  This is despite a slow down in sales volume of 21.7% and 27.9% respectively.